As someone who believes passionately in buying locally from small, independent farms and producers, my interest was peaked when I first heard about a new book titled, “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” I thought I had a pretty good idea of what the book would be about and expected that it would be written by an environmental or energy policy expert.   I was wrong on both accounts.

Firstly, the book contained a great deal of information that I had never come across before and, secondly, the book’s author, Jeff Rubin, is actually the chief economist at an investment bank called CIBC World Markets.   You’d think that a guy who is focused on world markets would hardly be a candidate to write a book about how the world will soon become small and local.

However, as I read the book, I began to understand why Jeff wrote it.  You see, one of his jobs as an economist was to predict future oil prices.   He had compiled data for over a decade to back up his predictions and they increasingly led him to the conclusion that oil prices were going to rise dramatically in the near future due to dwindling supplies and increasing demand.

In fact, he was almost laughed off the stage at a national petroleum club meeting in 2000 when he predicted that oil would reach $50 per barrel within five years.   However, five years later when he returned to give a new forecast, no one was snickering any more because the price of West Texas crude had just crossed the $50 mark.   Jeff then proceeded to once again expose himself to ridicule and derision by making an even more audacious prediction: that oil prices would rise to $100 within 2 years.   Once again history proved him correct and, in fact, in 2008, they actually surpassed $140 per barrel.

Continue reading It's going to be a small world, afterall